Decision making using game theory
An introduction for managers - ANTHONY KELLY
ANTHONY KELLY
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Παρουσίαση
Game theory is a key element in most decision-making processes involving two or more people or organisations. Originally published in 2003, this book explains how game theory can predict the outcome of complex decision-making processes, and how it can help you to improve your own negotiation and decision-making skills. It is grounded in well-established theory, yet the wide-ranging international examples used to illustrate its application offer a fresh approach to an essential weapon in the armoury of the informed manager. The book is accessibly written, explaining in simple terms the underlying mathematics behind games of skill, before moving on to more sophisticated topics such as zero-sum games, mixed-motive games, and multi-person games, coalitions and power. Clear examples and helpful diagrams are used throughout, and the mathematics is kept to a minimum. It is written for managers, students and decision makers in any field. (From the publisher)
Περιεχόμενα
Preface
1 Introduction
Terminology
Classifying games
A brief history of game story
Layout
2 Games of skill
Linear programming, optimisation and basic calculus
The Lagrange methode of partial derivatives
3 Games of chance
An introduction to basic probability theory
Games of chance involving risk
Games of chance involving uncertainty
4 Sequential decision making and cooperative games of strategy
Representing sequential decision making
Sequential decision making in single-player games
Sequential decision making in two-player and multi-player games
Cooperative two-person games
5 Two-person zero-sum games of strategy
Representing zero-sum games
Games with saddle points
Games with no saddle points
Large matrices generally
Interval and ordinal scales for pay-offs
6 Two-person mixed-motive games of strategy
Representing mixed-motive games and the Nash equilibrium
Mixed-motive games without single equilibrium points: archetype 1-leadership games
Mixed-motive games without single equilibrium points: archetype 2-heroic games
Mixed-motive games without single equilibrium points: archetype 3-exploitation games
Mixed-motive games without single equilibrium points: archetype 4-martyrdom games
Summary of features of mixed-motive prototypes
The Cournot, von Stackelberg and Bertrand duopolies: an interesting application of mixed-motive games
Solving games without Nash equilibrium points using mixed strategies
7 Repeated games
Infinitely repeated games
Finitely repeated games
8 Multi-person games, coalitions and power
Non-cooperative multi-person games
Mixed-motive multi-person games
Partially cooperative multi-person games
Indices of power: measuring influence
9 A critique of game theory
Rationality
Indeterminacy
Inconsistency
Conclusion
Appendix A: Proof of the minimax theorem
Appendix B: Proof of Bayes' theorem
Bibliography
Index
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